10 AM Update November 29, 2006

Cold air continues to overspread western and central Oklahoma. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were widespread throughout central Oklahoma as of mid-morning. There have been reports of very small hail covering the ground in parts of OKC.

Temperatures continue to fall. Much of northern Oklahoma is already below freezing, with temps in the metro ranging from the mid 30s north to lower 40s far south.

The National Weather Service is likely going to upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning with freezing rain and sleet becoming more common later today and into tonight. The latest computer guidance is showing the likelyhood of accumulatiing snow tonight into tomorrow in and around central Oklahoma.

Remember, for more updates throughout the day, go to the main section of KOCO.com and click on the link that says “Storm Updates”.

Updates Throughout The Day November 29, 2006

You can see hour by hour updates on the cold front and approaching winter storm on the front page of KOCO.com. Click on where it says “Storm Update” and see the information that will be posted throughout the day.

The front has moved in a few hours faster, but everything else is going according to plan. Temperatures in the 30s and 40s will overspread the entire state by late this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms. The storms will mainly be along the front in eastern Oklahoma where some severe weather is possible.

The upper low that is the second part of this storm will swing into the southern Plains tonight with a wintry mix of precipitation. By tomorrow it will all become snow with the heaviest being in the eastern part of the state. The OKC metro could see an inch or two, while farther east and northeast 4-6 inches could fall.

All the snow will be over by late tomorrow. Friday through the weekend will be dry but cold.

Rick

A Better Model November 28, 2006

Have you noticed more accurate weather forecasts recently? We have been using a new computer model as one of our tools in preparing the weather forecast. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is the first weather forecasting model to be used by both research and operational meteorologists. The high resolution model has already cut errors in nighttime temperature and humidity across the eastern United States by over 50 percent. This model is also used by the US Air Force Weather Agency, and they have noticed better flight level wind forecasts in the tropics. The AFWA also says the WRF outperforms other models by over 70 percent.

The WRF is a global forecasting model, and is being used by weather agencies in Taiwan, South Korea, China and India. It is also hoped that by the end of 2007 this model will be used in forecasts that serve more than a third of the world’s population. NOAA is also developing a hurricane oriented version of the WRF, to be called the HWRF.

Here is the WRF forecast for tomorrow evening. The WRF has the arctic front moving through southeast Oklahoma with thunderstorms and rain across the area. It also calls for ice and snow to develop tomorrow night.

There’s No Stopping It November 27, 2006

Despite the record and near record warmth of the past few days, reality is about to return to Oklahoma. In fact, in the northwest, it already has. The leading edge of colder air is stalled across northwest Oklahoma where temperatures are in the 30s and 40s, while the rest of the state is in the 60s. Some light rain is falling in spots as well.

The true surge of arctic air will come down on Wednesday, followed by a round of messy wintry precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday. Take the time today or tomorrow to make sure you are ready for a full fledged winter blast. Dig out the hats, gloves, and ice scrapers. Prepare yourself for winter driving at its worst.

I’m glad I spent several hours yesterday raking leaves and putting up my Christmas decorations. Now I won’t have to mess around with that stuff next weekend when it will be much colder.

Check back later this afternoon, I’ll try to have my latest thoughts on the return of winter.

Rick

Tick Tock November 27, 2006

Time is running out to get any outdoor chores done before winter weather arrives. Put up your Christmas lights today or tomorrow, because it will get very cold Wednesday, and it will stay cold for a while.

We also have a winter storm to watch Wednesday night and Thursday. The normal question abound with this storm….

• What exact track will the storm take? A jog north or south will make a huge difference between snow and ice, and between ice and rain.

• How much moisture will there be? The difference between 1/4 and 1 inch of moisture will be a light glaze or a major storm.

One question we do not have this time is “Will it be cold enough?”. It will certainly be cold enough for frozen precipitation for most of the state. The thickness of the cold air will determine whether that will be snow, sleet of freezing rain.

The graphic is a rough draft of the storm to come. The details are certain to change in the next three days, but get ready now, the cold is definitely coming.

The season’s first winter storm this week! November 26, 2006

Get ready! Our first taste of wintry precip will be returning to the state late Wednesday into Friday morning across Oklahoma. Right now computer models have a wild range of precip types and duration when it comes to freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Arctic air will be in place as a powerful storm system approaches from the west. This setup is a classic trouble maker for the sooner state. Make sure you make plans now in anticipation for the storm. Stock up on fresh batteries, water, etc in case of trouble.
AT

Whoop!!! November 25, 2006

Man, what a way to end a not so stellar season. My Ags upset our number 1 rival yesterday. I was surprised myself, as I didn’t think we had a chance of winning. It looks like the longhorn QB wasn’t 100% during the game and that likely played a factor, but our defense did a stellar job. I never had so many Sooners routing for my team as was the case yesterday! =)
AT

We’re #11! November 24, 2006

A web site that is dedicated to “healthy and sustainable living”, http://www.SustainLane.com, has compiled a list of the top 50 U.S. cities based on their risk of natural disasters. The site takes into consideration hurricanes, hail, tornadoes and earthquakes and ranks each city based on the amount of damage they can cause.

Miami, FL topped the list based on their hurricane threat. New Orleans came in #2, followed by Oakland, CA and San Francisco, both at risk from earthquakes. Honolulu rounded out the top 5, due to their earthquake, tsunami and storm surge flooding threats. Tied for #50 in the list are Mesa, AZ and Milwaukee, WI.

Oklahoma City comes in at #11.

I’m Thankful…. November 23, 2006

Happy Thanksgiving! I just got back from my in-laws house where we enjoyed a wonderful Thanksgiving meal. Now it’s time to work.

I have to admit, working on Thanksgiving is kind of a drag. I’d rather be with my family. But then I think about all of the families who have family members in the armed forces, and suddenly I feel guilty about whining because I have to work on a holiday. In fact, the more I think about it, the more grateful I am that I am able to work today, or any day for that matter.

Here I am, a weather junkie who gets paid to talk about the weather. How fortunate is that?! I live in a great state for weather and a great state to raise a family. I can’t think of any other job I would want to do, or any other place to live.

This has been a great day for me. Spending time playing football with my son. Sharing a meal with loved ones, and really taking the time to think about how fortunate I am. Days like this are needed from time to time.

I hope you have a great day as well.

Rick

Happy Thanksgiving! November 23, 2006

It will be a warm Thanksgiving, and our afternoon high temperature will be close to the daily record high…. but no where near the record for Thanksgiving. Looking up daily records is pretty easy, but getting records for Thanksgiving takes a bit more time…. remember that Thanksgiving falls on a different date each year.

The warmest Thanksgiving on record was in 1965, when it warmed to 84 degrees. Today will mark the 13th time that we have warmed to at least 70 degrees on Thanksgiving. The coldest turkey day was back in 1993, when the morning low was 15 degrees, and it warmed to just 28 degrees in the afternoon. Back in 1919, we had a Thanksgiving with a high of just 28 degrees as well.

The rainiest Thanksgiving was in 1896, with 1.56 inches of rain. We have also had snow on the holiday. Seven times in Oklahoma City, with the snowiest Thanksgiving in 1968, when 1.4 inches fell.