Perfect Monday Morning June 30, 2008

It is almost a play on words, isn’t it?!  But, we had the perfect Monday morning.  Pleasant temperatures, light winds, clear skies and low dewpoints…it all came together for a very nice start to the day. 

The bottom numbers represent the overnight lows, courtesy the Oklahoma Mesonet.  Incidentally, I can’t praise the Mesonet folks enough for all of the data they provide us.  I’ll never say that our job is easy, but they make it easier!

South winds will return late tonight.  The humidity, wind and temperatures will all increase.  That northwesterly flow in the jet stream should push a front at least close to, if not into Oklahoma later this week.  We should see some thunderstorms, starting in the north late Wednesday, then scattered across at least northern and central Oklahoma Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  It won’t rain the entire time, but there will be some storms around for the 4th of July.  I wouldn’t cancel my plans at this time, but it does appear that storms will impact some July 4th weekend activities.

Andy

How Much I Love the Dew Point… June 29, 2008

I have to admit…the dew point runs a close second to temperature, when it comes to importance in forecasting and also deciding how comfortable the day will be.  As Andy was saying…some cooler dryer air has filtered in to the state.  The dewpoint is a measure of the moisture in the atmosphere.  Its is measured with a device called a psychrometer.  Here is a freeze shot from the Oklahoma Mesonet, of the number of degrees the dewpoint has dropped in the last 24 hours.  Feel free to click on the image to enlarge. 

 

Some places have seen the dewpoint drop over 15 degrees, thanks to the cold front that messed up our Saturday.  Here is where our dewpoints are right now!  The lower the number, the dryer the air.  The higher the number the more moisture there is in the atmosphere…and the higher the humidity will be. 

Ahhh feels nice out there huh?  Well when the dewpoint is this low, it allows the temperature to drop down a bit more than if the dewpoint was higher.  Why?  Well the temperature can not drop below the dew point.  Sooooo…if the dewpoint is 70….the overnight low will not be less than that.  Cool huh?  Well this is why I love the dewpoint so much.  :-)

Tonight we will be seeing 50s in the northeastern part of the state.  That is quite cool for late June.  In fact, the record low for Oklahoma city is 54 set back in 1923.  I think we will stay at 63 in the metro, but that is certainly still below our average low of 69. 

Enjoy!!

Sarah

“Cooler” & Drier Air June 29, 2008

A cold front will push all the way to central Texas by later this afternoon.  For late June, that’s impressive.  Rain is tapering off in southern Oklahoma this morning, and skies are clearing.  We will see “cooler” temperatures today, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s.  Tonight will be really nice.  Temperatures will drop into the 50s and 60s across the state.  That will be a real treat for the end of June.

We will gradually increase the temperatures, wind and humidity as we go through the week.  I’m keeping slight chances for rain in the forecast for Wednesday through Saturday as that “northwesterly flow” in the jet stream has the potential to bring a complex or two of thunderstorms across the state. 

Andy

Bumpy Start To The Weekend June 28, 2008

It’s been an interesting morning.  We had a pretty healthy complex of showers and thunderstorms over southwestern Oklahoma.  Retrop received nearly an inch and a half of rain.  As that complex started to weaken, we saw a heatburst over western Oklahoma.  Temperatures in Custer county shot up into the low to mid 90s just before sunrise.  We saw 40-60 mph winds across west central Oklahoma.  The strongest winds were in western/northern Caddo, much of Custer, northern Washita, and eastern Beckham counties.  60 mph winds were reported from the Oklahoma mesonet site at Hinton. 

Thunderstorms also developed in central Oklahoma.  Nickel size hail was reported in Norman, and we had some street flooding in Edmond.  Truthfully, the main impact from the central Oklahoma storms was the lightning and the associated thunder, which woke a lot of people up early on a Saturday morning.

At mid-morning, things have calmed down somewhat.  Advantage Doppler HD still indicates showers and thunderstorms,  but the heaviest activity is in eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.  The storms in Kansas are pretty healthy, but they are also managing to stay in Kansas. 

As we go through the day, a cold front will push across the state.  We should see more storms fire, some of which could be severe.  Keep in mind–we don’t issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for lightning, but there will be plenty of lightning around with the storms today.  So, if you have outdoor plans, you need to plan on having a safe place to get to in the event that thunderstorms approach your area.

Storms will end from north to south tonight as the cold front moves across the state.  This should bring drier air into the state.  We will see pleasant overnight low temperatures both Sunday and Monday mornings.  There will be a lot of 60s on the map to start off both days. 

I still don’t see the summertime high pressure ridge building in.  This means that once we see Gulf moisture return later this week, I’ve got to throw at least a slight chance for storms into the forecast.

Andy

Late June Cold Front! June 27, 2008

In the short term, we’ve seen a decent area of showers and thunderstorms over northern and central Oklahoma this morning. These storms “defied all odds”, making it into the OKC metro.  They will leave behind a boundary for a few storms to fire on later this afternoon.  Highs today will be in the 90s central and east, and the 100s out west.  If we can keep the cloud and rain around a bit longer, that could help keep the air temperature down.  Flipside, in areas where it has rained, once the sun comes out it will feel awful humid this afternoon.

This morning’s rain is just a mere distraction on the true weather picture.  A strong upper storm system will move through the Great Lakes over the next few days.  This will shove a cold front through Oklahoma.  As a matter of fact, this front will push through much of Texas!  The front will bring a chance for thunderstorms starting in the north later this afternoon, ending in southern Oklahoma early Sunday.  Of course, it won’t rain the whole time, but any storms that do develop could become severe.   We’ll also have to track the potential for locally heavy rainfall.  Later this weekend, behind the front, we should lose the humidity, giving us pleasant mornings and warm afternoons.

The current 7-day forecast calls for dry weather next week, but that is subject to change.  The summertime high pressure ridge never really builds in.  Once the Gulf moisture returns, which should be the middle part of the week, storm chances could return to the forecast.  At this time, I’m not forecasting the 4th of July weekend to be a rain-out, but I’m not forecasting completely dry weather either. 

Andy

Lake Forecasts June 26, 2008

It may not be the July 4th holiday weekend, but I know that some of you may be headed to an area lake this weekend. And why not, it certainly is hot enough out there. If you are headed out to a lake to cool down a bit, here is the weekend forecast for a few of em’:

Grand Lake:

Friday- Mostly Sunny. High 93, south winds 15-20

Saturday- A 40% chance of thunderstorns. High 87, south winds 15-20

Sunday- Mostly Sunny. High 84, south winds 10-15

Lake Eufaula:

Friday: Mostly Sunny. High 92, south winds 10-15

Saturday: A 40% chance of thunderstorms. High 88, south winds 10-20

Sunday: Partly cloudy, 20% chance of storms. High 85, east winds 10-15.

Lake Texoma:

Friday: Sunny. High 94, south winds 10-20

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 93, southwest winds 10-15

Sunday: A 40% chance of thunderstorms. High 85, southeast winds 10-15

Rusty

The Pattern… June 25, 2008

The pattern continues…storms off to the west late in the day…clouds from those storms cover Oklahoma overnight, leaving us with morning clouds…and then they clear away during the day.  Looks like another warm day today with highs in the low 90s.  Thursday and Friday will be much warmer though.  We will see mid to upper 90s!  The highest temperatures we have seen yet this year.  Our average high this time of year is 90, and we will certainly be above that.  Records this for the next few days are in the triple digits.   The record for Thursday is 104 set back in 1918 and the record for Friday is 103 set in 1994, so I don’t think we will be threatening any records.  By the weekend a front will cool us off just enough to see temperature trend back towards average.  Low 90s for Saturday and Sunday. 

Have a great Wednesday!

 

Sarah

Summer Heat June 23, 2008

I hope everyone had a chance to enjoy the great weather for the first weekend of the summer.  The sun was shining…that is for sure!  I too had a chance to head to the pool, and as I laid there all I could think was… What is the actual temperature?  What is the dew point?  It didn’t feel terribly humid to me…after all I did just move from Houston, so anything is less humid that that!  I then started to wonder what the heat index was, and started to think about how nice it would have been if I had picked a chair in the shade!  It was downright hot!!  Yes…I am a bit of a weather nerd to be thinking about all this as I laid there trying to relax by the pool…and I am probably proved to be even more of a nerd as I checked the observations when I got home!  At the time i was out there…the Temp was 93 and the dew point was 57.  There was no heat index.  Surprising?  Well actually….57 is pretty low for a dew point.  The dew point, just as a reminder, is a measure of the moisture in the atmosphere.  If the dew point was 65, then the heat index would have been up to 95.  The more moisture there is in the atmosphere, the higher the heat index will be.  I guess my whole point to this blog is to say…yeah its hot now…but we ain’t seen nothin’ yet!  Just wait til the temp is 98 and the dew point is 70, then we will all wish we had this weekend back.  More than 1,500 people die each year from excessive heat.  It is the number one weather related killer.  Here are just a few reminders for the coming months when it starts getting even hotter!

Drink plenty of water

Check on the Elderly

Never leave anyone, especially kids and pets in a closed parked vehicle. 

Slow down and try to plan strenuous outdoor activities during the coolest parts of the day. 

Spend more time in air-conditioned buildings. 

That is all for now.  Maybe next time we will talk about how you can calculate the heat index yourself!!

Sarah

   

Oklahoma Earthquake June 23, 2008

The Oklahoma Geological Survey and the Associated Press are reporting that there were a couple of earthquakes in Oklahoma Saturday night.   Both quakes were centered near Chandler (that’s in Lincoln county).  The first one ranked a 2.2 on the Richter scale.  The second one was around 35 seconds later and ranked a 3.0.  No damage was reported, but apparently a few windows rattled.

California had an earthquake this morning.  It happened around 7:15am Pacific time (9:15am here).  It ranked a 4.0 on the Richter scale and was centered two miles east of Loma Linda.   We haven’t received any reports of damage or injuries with that quake. 

Andy

Still Some Severe Potential… June 22, 2008

A weak cool front will be located in southern Kansas by late Sunday afternoon.  A few thunderstorms should develop along this front.  Below is the severe weather outlook for this afternoon and tonight.

 

You’ll note that the main chance for severe weather is in northern Oklahoma.  Now that we’re into summer, it’s more difficult for cold fronts to push too far into the state.  We see a few during the summer, but they are far less frequent than even a month ago! 

The heat will continue south of the front.  We will all be in the 90s for most of the week.  I can’t rule out an upper 80 in northern Oklahoma, and there will likely be a few 100′s in western Oklahoma.  Rain chances won’t be zero.  The better rain chances for the next couple of days will be in northern and western Oklahoma.  Rain chances after Tuesday won’t be zero, but they will be less than 20%.

Gotta mow today…

Andy