Signs That We Could Get Some Rain September 30, 2008

September ended on a dry note.  In fact, as Sarah mentioned in her post, OKC has gone 17 straight days without any rain.  Total OKC rain for September was .59″, which is 3.25″ below normal.

October will start off dry the first few days.  I am seeing signs of a chance of thunderstorms next Sunday into Monday.  Take a look at this:

A strong upper storm system will be moving through the western United States, toward the Plains.  At the same time at the surface, moisture will be streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico.  Dew point temperatures should climb into the 60s by Sunday.  Thunderstorms could break out in the central and perhaps southern Plains Sunday into Monday.  One thing that will likely happen is an increase in southerly winds starting Friday and continuing into the weekend.  Gusts of over 30 mph will be possible.

The different computer models are not in agreement on how this will all work out.  In fact, some models vary wildly from run to run.  I have low storm chances in the forecast for Sunday and Monday.  While much will change between now and then, I would not be surprised to see some severe storms in the Plains by late in the weekend.  More on this tomorrow.

Rick

The 100 Threat Ends… September 30, 2008

On September 30, 1977, we set a record high of 100 degrees at Will Rogers Airport in Oklahoma City.  That day 31 years ago would be the latest in the calendar year that we would record triple digit temperatures. 

So, if current and historical weather trends hold, we are done with the 100 degree days for 2008.  Actually, we were done with them on August 9th.  We hit 104 degrees that day, and haven’t hit 100 since.  We hit or exceeded 100 degrees 11 times this year, starting on the 21st day of July and as I mentioned earlier, ending on the 9th of August.  We get into the 100s an average of 12 times a year, so you could refer to this as an average year.  The hottest days were August 3rd and 4th, when we hit 106 each day. 

On the other side, here were some of the low temperatures from this morning:

Beaver:  38
Woodward:  41
Alva and Buffalo: 43
Red Rock:  44
El Reno, Blackwell, Erick, Medford:  45
OKC:  54

Expect the pleasant, dry weather to continue into the weekend!

Andy

Dry Weather Continues… September 30, 2008

Many of you have been wondering just how many days has it been since we have seen rain?  Well Since the 13th of September in the Metro area…and it has been since the 12th in parts of Northern Oklahoma.  It has been a very dry month in general.  The average rainfall total for the month of September for the Oklahoma City metro area is 3.84″.  We have received .59″ since September 1st.  That puts us 3.25″ below normal.  That is just for the metro…there are some places…especially in northern Oklahoma who have gotten much more than that….here is a look at some of the last significant rainfall totals across the state. 

 

It looks dry through the end of the week and the first part of the weekend…but by Sunday and Monday we should see some of the wet stuff…

Sarah

More Falling Numbers September 29, 2008

No, not Wall Street, but temperatures.  A cold front continues to move through the state early this evening.  The end result will be a nice taste of fall.

Here are some forecast temperatures.  The first number will be the low tonight, the second number will be the high tomorrow.

OKC:  53/79
Woodward:  43/80
Hobart:  52/80
Ardmore:  55/82
Ponca City:  46/77
Enid:  47/78

Our stretch of dry weather will continue too…

Andy

Hardcore Weather For Monday, 9/29/08 September 29, 2008

A cool front is in the process of moving into northern Oklahoma.  Temperatures behind the front will be in the comfortable 70s across the panhandle and the northwest, while ahead of the front, highs will be around 90 in the south.  After today, highs the next few days will be in the 70s and low 80s across Oklahoma.

Our future weather looks pretty tranquil.  For the details, here’s today’s edition of Hardcore Weather:

Youtube address:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZ1_GNJhyn4

Rick

The Latest on Kyle September 27, 2008

Kyle has slowly strengthened today into a category one hurricane. I think it’s about as strong as it’s going to get as it enters a more unfavorable environment, including cooler water temperatures away from the Gulf Stream.

Kyle has also picked up forward speed, now moving north at 24mph. So, it will speed parallel to the U.S. East Coast on Sunday before moving into Eastern Canada.

Kyle is just far enough offshore, where most of the coast will see minimal impacts. Higher tides, waves and gusty winds will be the main effects. Kyle will more deeply impact the New England coast from Cape Cod to Maine. Heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding are all likely.

Rusty

Hardcore Weather for Saturday 9/27/08 September 27, 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle, warm weather, cool weather, more warm weather and the forecast for tonight’s football games….it’s all in today’s edition of Hardcore Weather!

Here’s the Youtube link:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZSa9VGM2gE

Have a great weekend!

Andy

Tropical Storm Kyle… September 26, 2008

Looks like a nasty weekend for much of the east coast.  The non-tropical area of low pressure that we were talking about yesterday never quite acquired tropical characteristics…so it was not given a name.  We do have Tropical Storm Kyle though…and that may be affecting the extreme Northeast as we head into the latter part of the weekend.  Here is a look at the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center. 

 

It is expected to strengthen a bit and become a Hurricane but it may weaken again before getting close to the east coast.  Either way…the weather in the Northeast looks very unsettled into the weekend. 

 

Sarah

Kyle Forms September 25, 2008

The tropics have been relatively quiet the last couple of weeks. Today, it’s beginning to heat back up.

First, a non-tropical low is generating some high surf, heavy rain and coastal flooding along the East Coast. This low looked like it could take on tropical characteristics, but I don’t think that will happen before the center moves onshore Friday morning. Still, the affects will be widespread, as far north as the New England coast through Saturday.

An area of disturbed weather we’ve been tracking for a few days has formed into Tropical Storm Kyle. Kyle is located north of the Virgin Islands and is heading north, into open waters. Kyle has maximum sustained winds of 45mph and slow strengthening is expected over the next several days. If Kyle follows the National Hurricane Center’s forecasted track it should stay far enough west of the U.S. east coast to generate little impact. Kyle could become a minimal hurricane over the weekend.

 

Rusty

East Coast Storm…or Tropical Storm? September 25, 2008

  This weekend looks anything but quiet for the Northeast for Friday and the weekend.  An area of low pressure right of the coast of the North and South Carolina border.  Right now…the surface low is embedded in a front but it looks like it is starting to acquire tropical characteristics.  If this occurs, than this low could become a named tropical cyclone or a named sub-tropical cyclone.  Sub tropical is used to describe storms that have both tropical characteristics and non-tropical characteristics…and since it is embedded in a front, it is not of tropical origin.  Regardless of the official classification of this storm…it will still produce winds of 50mph or better along the Mid Atlantic coast and Northeast coast.  The top circle indicates the coastal low that I just talked about. 

The bottom circle is a true ”tropical in nature” area of disturbed weather.  This area will be monitored for further development as well and it could become a tropical depression later today as it moves north into a favorable environment for strengthening. 

Depending on if the development of these two weather systems…we could have Kyle and Laura on our hands as we head into the weekend!!    

 

Sarah