When I was a kid, summer had several benchmarks. Memorial Day meant that school was out or was about to be out. My birthday (mid-August) was the warning shot that school was about to start. Depending on the school system, Labor Day was either the first long weekend of the school year, or that school would be starting the next day. My favorite was the 4th of July. Smack dab in the middle of the summer. Since it wasn’t surrounded by school, there was plenty of time to plan. In small town Missouri, almost all types of fireworks were legal, so I’d put on my own little fireworks display for the family, and dad would cook out and make homemade ice cream. If I didn’t do the fireworks, there was always some big display set to music out at the local college. We always had a lot of fun on the 4th of July. Except when it rained.
This year, we will likely have some thunderstorms in the state over the 4th of July weekend.
A front will enter the state. Although there’s room for this to change, it appears that the front will at least push through the northeastern half of the state, and might make it near/past the Red River. With that front in the area, storm chances will go up. The best chance for storms will be over eastern/northeastern Oklahoma. There could be periods or waves of storms during the afternoon and overnight hours. It won’t rain all day or all weekend, but there will be some storms around. We are in that time of year where severe storms/heavy rain are always a possibility. If you’re planning on going to the lakes this weekend, you need to be weather aware.
We will update you on the weekend forecast as we go through the week.
Andy
For the OKC metro, the picture looks pretty simple. We should see a warming trend through the week. Highs will climb into the upper 90s and lows will climb back into the 70s. The humidity will slowly increase, so the heat index won’t be much of a factor in the early part of the week. By the 4th of July weekend, a front will slip in bringing a slight chance for thunderstorms.
The front that pushed those 100s out of here is located to our south in Texas. We’ve seen showers and thunderstorms to the north of the front in northern/western Texas and southern Oklahoma. Grandfield has had nearly an inch of rain so far. The best chance for rain with this front will be in southern Oklahoma today, then the front will push to the east.
You can see a slow, big storm to our east and the summer ridge of high pressure setting up to our west. That brings us north/northwesterly flow in the jetstream. With the center of the summer heat dome staying to our west, it becomes pretty tough to absolutely guarantee dry weather. This upper air pattern is notorious for surprises, such as a complex of storms developing over the Plains and slipping south/southeast into Oklahoma. If that doesn’t happen, sometimes fronts sneak in. There could be one of these tomorrow.
How far into Oklahoma this front makes it remains to be seen. And how much rain is still a big question. Right now, we’re going with a slight chance for storms in northeastern Oklahoma. We’ll have to watch this…some of these storms could slip into central Oklahoma. As I’ve been saying, this dry forecast for Tuesday-Thursday is subject to change. It still looks like the best chance for rain this week will come toward the 4th of July weekend when a front slips into the state.
A Heat Advisory and a Clean Air Alert will be in effect for the OKC metro area through this afternoon. The heat index will top out around 105. Reaching 101 ties us for the hottest day so far this year. Reaching 103 ties a record high last set in 1994. It’s important to remember–the only thermometer that matters is the one at the airport. Most areas in the metro were at or above 100 yesterday, but Will Rogers only recorded 99.
The best chance for rain will be along and behind the front late this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Some parts of the state could get around an inch of rain. In the beginning of the event, there could be some severe storms.
The best chance for organized severe weather will be across northern Oklahoma. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Strong storms will still be possible to the south of this area.
