More on Thursday September 30, 2009

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is still in effect until 11pm tonight for Northwest Oklahoma. One big storm move through Beckham county, with some golfball size hail near Sweetwater. That storm has since fizzled out. Isolated severe storms are still possible, but there’s a lot of CIN (convective inhibition) the storms will have to fight. Elevated storms could develop overnight once the low-level jet kicks in. Those storms could move into Central Oklahoma if they can hold together.

The greatest risk for the state is tomorrow. As we have mentioned, the best chance looks to be in Eastern Oklahoma, especially the Southeastern part of the state. The cold front should work its way through the metro around noon to early afternoon. Storms will develop ahead of the front, and could be strong to severe. The best chance for severe weather on our area will be in Seminole, Pottawatomie, Pontotoc, Murray and Johnston counties.

Rusty

Thursday Timeline September 30, 2009

  Looks like we could see a few showers in the morning ahead of the main cold front.  The severe threat will be minimal in the morning. 

  Expect the front to be through the metro area by midday. 

 

  The severe weather threat will come into play as the front moves east of the metro.  Notice this also coincides with the peak daytime heating of the day, where we will find the most instability.  

   Highs will be in the 70s, but keep in mind, the temperatures will be dropping behind the front into the afternoon.  So temperatures could be in the 60s by the time you drive home from work. 

Sarah

Update: Thursday September 29, 2009

Alright, the latest weather model runs are coming in as we speak in regards to Thursday’s severe weather event and the impacts it will have on Oklahoma. Here is what we know right now. The weather models are starting to speed the system up some with would favor mostly the eastern part of the state to see strong/severe storms. That being said, we can not rule out storms for The Oklahoma City Metro but the likelihood of them becoming severe is slightly lesser now as the greatest amount of “instability” will be confined to the eastern/southeastern  part of the state. Given the faster movement, and everything else that we have been able to examine, the tornado threat is appearing less likely now with most of the models favoring a squall line event. Small tornadoes can still spin up from these lines, but are usually rather small in comparison.  Large hail and straight line winds are looking like they will be the main threats later into the afternoon. If you’re traveling that afternoon, Interstate 35 and points west look to be a safe bet for travel.

-Damon

Tsunami Hits American Samoa September 29, 2009

This is coming in from the AP at 2:30 local time. A tsunami swept into Pago Pago  in American Samoa shortly after an earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.9 shook the Pacific area.

There are currently no reports of injuries, although this could change as conditions begin to improve in the region and more information is revealed. The Samoa News is saying that water flowed  100 yards inland before retreating back into the ocean leaving many cars stuck in the mud.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Honolulu issued a Tsunami Watch for The Hawaiian Islands. So far there have been no reports of any Tsunami’s impacting The Hawaiian Islands.

-Damon

Yesterday’s Weather Extremes September 29, 2009

Another sign that fall is definitely in the air and not just here in Oklahoma. (I’ll admit, the weather was awesome today..it’s a shame that many of us were stuck in an office building. You know, if I were president, I would make days like today national holidays…) Anyways, everyday there is a list of “weather extremes” that is published. If you find your town on this list, then well… you basically experienced one heck of a day. Yesterday’s list of weather extremes goes as follows: Warmest Temperature: Bullhead City,Arizona…high 109 degrees. Coolest Temperature: Polebridge,Montana… low 15 degrees.

-Damon

Winter Storm Warnings! September 29, 2009

A sign that the seasons are changing . Today, The National Weather Service in Salt Lake City, Utah placed the Wasatch Mountains under a Winter Storm Warning. The first warning of the season where some locations could receive as much as 20 inches of snow off of a potent storm system that is actually headed this way. And while we won’t be seeing any snow out of this, we will be seeing our share of some windy weather and the potential for some strong to severe storms across The Sooner State. As we mentioned in the blogs below, the winds are likely to be up there for Wednesday night and the chance for storms likely for Eastern Oklahoma on Thursday. The next set of model runs will be in here in a few hours…we’ll let you know what the newest weather models are thinking when they come in. Keep checking back!
-Damon

A Chilly Start… September 29, 2009

But it’s….

Highs will be in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s tonight.  Doesn’t get much better than today! 

 

By Thursday we do have a good chance for storms.  When you break down the timing of this system, it looks like the most potent storms will be east of us. 

The area to watch stretches from northeast Oklahoma up into Missouri.  Hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible along with plenty of thunder and lightning.  Please keep yourself weather aware. 

 

Sarah

UPDATE: Thursday September 28, 2009

Alright, the latest weather model runs are coming in as we speak in regards to Thursday’s potential for severe weather. Rick and I have been examining the information coming in closely and it appears that the threat for severe weather across Central Oklahoma is becoming a little less certain now. A majority of the weather models have pushed the storm system a little farther north, thus allowing for the storms to develop east of Oklahoma City. There is one weather model that is still looking at putting storms across The Metro during the day Thursday. But, given the consistency that is coming out of a majority of the models, we feel that we may have to start scaling back the severe weather wording for Thursday with the primary threat for storms being in eastern Oklahoma. Again, we’ll continue to look at this closely and pass along new information as it becomes available.

-Damon

Move Over Chicago… September 28, 2009

Chicago.. the town know as “The Windy City”. It’s no surprise that the wind can blow across The Lakes leading to days where I am sure hairspray sales are off the chart.  However, the wind doesn’t blow as strong as you might think and believe it or not… there are a number of other cities that top Chicago in this list.  So, the windiest town in America… there are many towns that could easily make the list. If you have spent any time in The Northern Plains during the winter months, then you know places like Rapid City, South Dakota can be real windy. But, the city that currently holds the top spot is… drum roll…. Dodge City, Kansas where the average wind is 13.9 mph with Amarillo, Texas in a near 2nd place with an average wind of 13.5 mph. According to USA TODAY, the windiest “Big City” would actually be.. Oklahoma City, OK where the average wind is 12.2 mph. And, for those curious where Chicago is on the list..they are pretty far down where the average wind is 10.2 mph.

So, when can we expect the winds to return to The Sooner State? Hold on to your hat this Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The models are indicating that we could see winds about 3000 feet above the ground in the 65 mph range. Here at the surface, this could translate to winds over the 30 mph range for a sustained amount of time. So, move over Chicago… there’s new windy city in town…

-Damon

Thursday’s Severe Weather? September 28, 2009

I was going to wait to address this tomorrow, but it appears that we’re getting a few people wanting to know what Thursday is going to look like. There are some signs that we could be seeing some severe weather roll in during the day on Thursday. Some of the weather models are duking it out however on placement of the associated low with the storm system and just how far south it was drop. Placement of the storm path will play a role in whether or not storms develop west of Oklahoma City and push east or whether they develop east of Oklahoma City. So, the location of storm development appears to be in question right now, what is not in question is the fact that the atmospheric conditions are supporting the potential for severe storms during the day.(i.e. tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds.. you know..the works). .. Obviously we’re looking at this very closely…

-Damon