Archive for March, 2010

Easter Sunday Forecast
March 31, 2010

Easily the nicest weekend we have seen so far this year… !

Low humidity, lighter winds.. It doesn’t get any better than this!

-Damon

The Streak Continues…
March 31, 2010

It seems every time I talk about today’s high.. it’s followed by “this was the warmest day since…” and then I insert some date from last year. Well, nothing has changed… here’s today’s new high.

This high is not official, but as of this writing..it’s all I have. Next stop.. 88° then 89° and then..gasp..90°.

-Damon

Does El Nino = More Tornadoes?
March 31, 2010

April starts tomorrow. and while many look at April 1st as April Fools Day, Meteorologists will look at it as the 3rd busiest month for tornadoes. Essentially, it’s when tornado season starts to get it’s act together.

For The United States, the 3 year average says that April will see about 194 tornadoes. If you look at 2009, we experienced 226 tornadoes while 2007 only experienced 167. Many of you have been asking if El Nino leads to more tornadoes. Is there any truthfulness to this? Nope..none..nadda…zero…zilch! 2007 was our last El Nino season and then, we only had 167 tornadoes while last year, a La Nina season, saw 226 tornadoes. What’s even more interesting is to see what happened during the month of March. While Oklahoma saw it’s first tornado of the year in Hammon, most of America was relatively quiet.The 3 year average for March says we should have 138 tornadoes, but for the month, we only experienced.. get this… 36!

-Damon

Update: Severe Weather Risk
March 31, 2010

As I expected, the minute I do a blog entry about developing weather later in the week,the next model run comes in making me previous blog almost null and void. The latest model run seems to have a little more consistency in with it that suggests the STRONG STORM threat in Western Oklahoma for Thursday Night and Friday Morning may need to be bumped up into a SLIGHT CHANCE SEVERE STORM threat. Basically, on a scale here, we have bumped up the SEVERE THREAT by one category. The timing still looks the same. Western Oklahoma could see some storms start to pop and while they may start off as isolated, they could increase in coverage. This could be an overnight thing and by Friday Morning, the following hazards may exist.

The hazard threat has not changed from the post I did an hour ago. We’re still expecting that this could be a hail and wind maker with little chance of tornadoes.

-Damon

April Storms Moving In
March 31, 2010

After a fairly quiet March, the start of April looks like it could be a little on the active side as we start tracking in our next storm system.

The severe weather threat will start to increase as we take you into Friday. Some of the weather models are thinking we could see some storms early in the morning while others are holding off until the afternoon. Either or, there is some discrepancy in these models and even at 2 days out, its’ something that I don’t like to see. It makes forecasting even more difficult than it already is. For now, I will side with the one model that looks a little “wetter” than the other and then as time get closers we can trim down the rain chances or pump them up some.

By late Thursday into Friday morning, the cold front will be west of here, around The Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. This could spark off a few strong storms by Friday morning across Oklahoma with the threat for severe storms rather low.

The main weather hazards with this would be the threat for hail if any storm tried to get going though right now, the widespread severe weather potential is lacking.

By the afternoon, once we have seen temperatures climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s, and the storm moves even closer, we will likely see the threat for severe storms increase from Oklahoma City, southwest to Lawton and east towards Arkansas. While the moisture content won’t be as high as what we sometimes see in May, it will be high enough for us to see a few watches issued. Right now, the threat for a TORNADO WATCH being issued is certainly a strong possibility.

The main weather hazards we will see by the afternoon will be that of what we usually see during a severe weather event. Strong winds, large hail and tornadoes. Notice how we increase the probability for tornadoes during the afternono hours compared to the morning hours.

By Saturday, the storm will be racing towards the east and we’ll be on the back side of the storm. Light winds, lots of sunshine and low humidity could make this the nicest weekend we have had all year. Just in time for Easter.

-Damon

Now That’s Warm!
March 30, 2010

A sign that our seasons are really changing out there. The grass is greener, the daffodils are in bloom and we’re hitting temperatures that we have not hit in 6 months! The forecast for today and tomorrow is both 80 and 85 degrees.. both those highs are easily within reach. The sound of lawn mowers in action isn’t that far away..

-Damon

Feelin’ Like Summer!
March 30, 2010

It may be the final week of March, but our weather is going to be feeling more like the end of May! After such a cold winter, many of us will gladly welcome a nice warm up and that is what we’ll be seeing this week. The normal high is 67 degrees but with a return of warm southerly air moving in, our highs will shoot up into the low to mid 80s. Unfortunately, it won’t last long. A storm system will move in by the end of a week bringing with it rain and clouds and thus, a return of more “seasonal” temperatures. But hey, I would much rather be closer to a record in March than in July…

-Damon

United States Fire Risk
March 30, 2010

Holy RED FLAG WARNINGS batman. Look at this picture which shows all the weather hazards across The United States. Pink seems to be the popular color on this map which means an extreme fire threat. From San Angelo,Texas north to The South Dakota/North Dakota state line, fires are possible if care is not given. The Gulf of Mexico has not fully opened itself up to The Central Plains yet which means that most of the winds will be coming in from the southwest. Southwest winds across The Plains will keep humidity low and temperatures warm. There aren’t any counties in Oklahoma that have burn bans issued, but for the time being, it’s best to just hold off on the burning until the winds die down. Next week looks better.

-Damon

Today’s Fire Risk
March 30, 2010

After going through all of winter with little threat for wildfires, spring time has been the complete opposite as warm weather and dry windy conditions have been impacting Oklahoma. The fire threat for Central Oklahoma has been elevated to the VERY HIGH category today and will remain VERY HIGH for the next 3 days. But, the story changes across the state, especially in Western Oklahoma.

An EXTREME FIRE RISK for Western Oklahoma this week. The Interagency Fire Center is currently reporting there are 7 Fires in Oklahoma with 6 contained and 1 that is 90% contained.

As it stands, Oklahoma is the only state reporting large fires.Be careful out there..and.. DO NOT DO NOT DO NOT THROW YOUR CIGARETTES OUT THE WINDOW.

-Damon

Late-Week Storms Likely
March 29, 2010

Beautiful weather out there today.  Plan on warmer and windier weather….much warmer, much windier tomorrow through Thursday.  Of course, those are perfect conditions for wildfires, and the risk will be high, especially in western Oklahoma.  The fire danger will decrease by Friday as a rather large storm system moves into our area.  The best chance of rain and storms will be Friday and Friday night, with chances decreasing quickly by Saturday morning.  Here’s what will be happening at 5 pm Friday:

I expect that there will be a risk that some of the storms will be severe, and heavy rain will also be possible.  The storm system will move east during the day Saturday.  This is what I expect at 5:00 Saturday afternoon:

The way it looks now, Saturday could start with lingering showers, but the afternoon will end up day.  Easter Sunday will be dry and pleasant with highs in the 70s.

Rick