Understanding Risk Days…

I am sure we have all been watching news, when one of the meteorologists says that there is either a “slight risk”, a “moderate risk” or a “high risk” for severe weather But, what exactly do they mean by that? Let’s talk about it…

Slight Risk: What is a slight risk for severe storms? The Storm Prediction Center, who issues risk days, believes that we could see some scattered severe weather, some wind damage and some isolated tornadoes. It’s important to remember that it’s just a forecast for storms that could have hail, wind and tornadoes. It does not mention the strength of the storms.

Moderate Risk: This is issued when we’ll likely see a greater chance of storms and a greater concentration of storms. If we’re going to see numerous tornadoes, (between 10-20 on average) and more widespread large hail and damaging winds, then a moderate risk is issued. Usually, these are reserved for days when we could see an enhanced risk for severe storms. When these are issued, you’ll likely hear us mention that we could have extremely large hail and multiple tornadic supercells.

High Risk: High risk days are issued seldomly and usually only once or twice a year. This is when we’re likely going to see a large coverage of severe weather with the likelihood that there will be violent tornadoes and long track strong tornadoes. (Like we saw last Monday). These are issued on days when we have very little, if any forecast uncertainty.

Just remember, no 2 severe weather days are ever alike. And that every severe weather day will produce something different.

-Damon

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One Response

  1. What does a high risk mean? Depends… as in, be sure to wear a pair of Depends on that day. 🙂

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