Wednesday Severe Weather Update

We continue to monitor the threat for severe weather for Wednesday. The latest moderate risk though, which earlier was for Central and Western Oklahoma has now been push a little tot he south and east. Basically, south of I-40 including southwestern Oklahoma. However, the forecast is a bit more tricky than we have seen so far this year. While I am confident that we have a good chance of seeing severe storms, I also see the chance that we could have a “bust” in the forecast. So, let’s explain what we have and what may be going against us here…

We’ll likely see another thunderstorm complex form tonight in Southeastern Colorado and move in this direction. The weather models have been consistent in forming this feature, but the models have been inconsistent in how far east the storms make it. Here is a major concern I have right now on whether or not we see a moderate risk for storms tomorrow. It all comes down to what happens with the storms tonight/tomorrow morning and how long the thick deck of clouds last. If the storms tonight do not make it into Central Oklahoma, then we could be seeing a good amount of severe weather tomorrow. If they do make it, then how long does it takes for the atmosphere to recover? Sometimes it can recover quickly, sometimes it doesn’t. But, if it does.. then this is what we can expect.

A moving storm system from the west will likely bring in severe storms. Remember, this is the case if the atmosphere recovers.

We could see large hail (larger than softballs) and the chance for some long track tornadoes starting in the mid-afternoon. Either or, I see the chance of severe weather tomorrow whether the atmosphere is worked over in the morning or not. It just depends on the amount of severe weather. So, now is the time to prepare accordingly for tomorrow. Review your severe weather precautions. Forewarned is fairwarned…

-Damon

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One Response

  1. Thank you Damon for that thorough explanation of tomorrow’s possibilites. Your blog posts are always interesting and informative.

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