‘Cane Season Is Here!

The calendar says June 1st. That means, it’s now officially Hurricane Season in The Atlantic Ocean. So, what are we expecting? It looks like.. we’ll be expecting to see a lot of storms out there this year! Why? The main reason is a weakening El Nino, transitioning to a La Nina weather pattern and an uber warm Atlantic Ocean. Just how warm? Check this out!

The map above shows where sea-surface temperatures are compared to normal. Notice the red off The Gulf Coast and the yellow/orange colors across The Atlantic. This would denote water temperatures anywhere from 1.5-3.0 degrees above normal. So, with warm ocean temperatures, we’re definitely dealing with an added bonus for hurricanes. True, warm temperatures are not the only thing needed for hurricanes, but, the warmer water does help should conditions improve. Anyways, here is the official NOAA Hurricane Forecast and Dr. Gray’s Hurricane Forecast.

The forecast this year is for an active one, but how does this compare to normal?

On average, we usually see about 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes. So, by looking at the forecast, 14-23 named storms would certainly put us well above normal. But, would it shatter the never-ending tropical season of 2005?

2005 was the year where The USA Coast was hammered with storms (i.e. Katrina, Rita, etc). ( I do wonder how that year would have been perceived had none of the storms made landfall. It’s important to remember that this forecast is for storms only and makes no mention of landfalling hurricanes) That year had 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes. So, if we take the high-end average of what NOAA and Dr Gray are forecasting, then this year could come close to rivaling 2005. Let’s just hope the oil companies don’t get anxious and start jacking up fuel prices because of this forecast… ugh..

-Damon

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