Another Heavy Rain Threat?

It may be a few days out, but the models are already hinting at another chance of seeing heavy rain across Oklahoma. When? Maybe early next Monday. Here is what we’re seeing right now..

A cold front may have enough “umph” with it that it could move as far south as Southern Oklahoma. As many of us witnessed last week, when fronts are in the region, heavy rain is sometimes a possibility, especially when they stall. So, we’ll keep our eyes on this one … it should hold off until after sunset on Sunday.Let’s put it this way, I may not have to water my lawn for a while if the models were to be taken literally as of right now…

-Damon

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4 Responses

  1. I know it’s early, but how much rain are we possibly looking at, not as much as Monday of last week I hope?

  2. oh c’mon, really? That rain was a 1 in 500 year event, not going to happen two times in 2 weeks, sorry, not scaring me.

  3. Actually it’s not uncommon to have a 500 year flood twice in the same year. Essentially it’s a probabilistic measure. A 500 year flood is just that quantity of water that has the 1 in 500 chance in happening in any one year. Another way to say it would be, there’s a .2% chance of a flood of this magnitude occurring in any one year. So, it’s essentially a probabilistic measure.

    Not saying we will see 10″ of rain again next week but Damon is right in that another front will be moving south into the southern plains and depending on how it sets up we could be dealing with another heavy rain maker. At this point though I don’t see the synoptic flow pattern setting up in such a way that would promote as extreme of an event that we saw last week. However it would be nice to pick up a few inches of rain and have at least a full day or two of temps closer to climatology!

    • Just to clarify in case there was some confusion. This was not a 500 year flood. It was a 500 year rain event. There is a minor difference between the two. Though Zach does make a good point, the term 500 year flood is misleading. It’s actually a statistic and does not mean that it’s an event that happens once every 500 years when it comes to flooding. Just so we’re all on board here..last week was deemed a 500 year rain event and not a 500 year flood. Cheers! 🙂
      -Damon

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