July Tropics..

Now that we are basically done with Alex (the storm itself, not the environment it left behind), it’s time to start looking at our next tropical system. Was Alex normal? Even though it was the first hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this decade, it wasn’t anything that was deemed abnormal. So, what can we expect for July? We are now widening our view on when and where storms are likely to develop. In June, the Gulf of Mexico was basically the only place to look for tropical storm development. Now. our view is much wider than that…

Along The Atlantic Coast and south into The Caribbean Islands are where we are most likely to see storms development. Their track will vary depending on location. Storms that form in The Gulf will likely move either west towards Texas or northeast towards Florida. Storms in The Atlantic may brush the coast, but usually get caught up in a storm system moving across The United States and will move north and then eventually northeast.

July however is typically not a very busy month for hurricanes.

The Atlantic Basin averages only 1 hurricane every 2-3 years. Last year was very quiet and 2008 had 2 hurricanes form. However, once we hit August and September, that is when things go bonkers… And given the initial forecast this year for storms, I expect that the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and their 10 Lockheed-Martin WC-130J aircraft will be quiet busy…

-Damon

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