Want A White Christmas This Year?

I know it may only be July 19th, and Christmas shopping is no where on any of our minds. But, despite the travel mess, the long hours worked and the numbness in my fingers from shoveling, I did enjoy the fact that there was snow on the ground on Christmas Day. So, what are the odds that we could see a repeat of that this year? The answer…not good!

Over the past few months, La Nina has been forming in The Pacific Ocean (the cooling of ocean waters). And while it may only be a small drop in ocean temperatures, the impacts it will have on the world are going to be huge. So, what exactly will we see here in Oklahoma? Check out the graphic below.

This map shows projected temperatures for North America by using a model known as the CFS (Climate Forecast System). The blue shows where you’re likely to see below normal temperatures, the yellow means an equal chance of being both above or below and the red shows where the greatest chance of above normal temperatures is going to be. And yep, you got it, the red is right down here in The Southern Plains.

So, how accurate is this model? As with any model, you are bound to get errors here and there. But, this particular model does take sea temperatures into account, something that many other models do not, giving it the advantage.

So, are you already dreaming of a White Christmas? Head north my friend..



5 Responses

  1. La Nina is coming and this winter is likely not going to be as cold/snowy as last winter however I do not think it will be quite as warm as the CFS is predicting. This model did poor last winter and it’s just that a model. There are a lot more to take into consideration than ONE forecast model.

    • Zach, yes you are correct in that it is just one model. The CFS model tends to move towards climatology when forecasting such events so far out. It’s up to human, during the post processing of the model to remove any sort of systematic errors that may have occurred during the model run. So, assuming that human was able to subtract the model climatology from observed climatology, then it should help increase the reliability of the model. Time will only tell..

  2. A powerful cold front could come down at the right timing with moisture, etc… We could get it again this year! No more negative…think positive…white! 🙂

  3. After spending two hours shoveling my driveway last year, I’m thinking positively — that it’ll be 70 degrees and I’ll be wearing shorts on Christmas day 2010!

  4. I am all for the ice cold and maybe a little bit of snow on Christmas but screw last years blizzard the first Christmas in my 18 years on this earth that I did not get to spend it with any of my extended family which I always do! So bring on the cold but forget the blizzards and espically the stupid ice storms I was without power for a week… I dont think I could do that again!

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