Our Next Best Chance for Rain Going Bye, Bye?

We’re scraping and clawing back here going over the computer models trying to find our next chance for rain. Unfortunately, the models have been fairly consistent in showing that we only have low-end chances this weekend.

There are two ways we’ll have a shot for rain: the first is a cold front coming from the north, and the second is tropical moisture coming from the south. As you can see from the HPC graphic below, the front will make a run at northern Oklahoma Saturday night into Sunday morning. Most of the QPF (rain amounts) stay north of the border with this front as it weakens as it moves towards us. We’re hoping for the front to at least push a boundary into northcentral OK and give us a shot at some rain. The way it looks now, the front will provide a 30% chance for rain from Saturday Night to Sunday Night for northern OK, and a 20% chance for the metro. The front will then retreat north as a warm front on Monday.

Moisture is abundant right now over the area, but we just can’t get the deepest moisture to move this far north, nor can we get a trigger to move over us to squeeze some of this moisture out as rain. One way to do that is to get a tropical storm to move inland. We’ve been watching a tropical wave, currently over Hispaniola, the past few days. This wave showed signs of developing into a depression, but development now is slow at best. Regardless, it will bring some moisture inland wherever it heads. The problem is it may not be headed our way. From the latest satellite images, it looks like it may be trying to head more northeast, away from the Gulf of Mexico and towards the Florida east coast.

Of course, any tropical storm in the Gulf is a double-edged sword. It may bring us some relief, but there’s still all that oil out there. Broad tropical waves may also try to move through the Gulf over the next week, their cumulative effects could also help enhance our chance for rain.



There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: