I Suppose It’s Never Too Early

The last couple of weeks, Rick keeps going on about La Nina and how we should be thinking ahead to the effects it might have on our Winter. Admittingly, my mind would start to wander back to the heat of the present day…would I even survive to make it to cooler weather? I guess now that Mother Nature has turned off the blast furnace, and temperatures have dropped back into the 80s, I can breathe easily enough to look ahead to the shorter days, the end of football season, and the threat of an ice storm. Oh yeah, and the holidays, can’t forget those.

For those of you who may not know, La Nina is the opposite of El Nino. We are breaking out of El Nino (warmer than normal water temperatures of the east coast of South America) and moving into a La Nina pattern, when the water temperature is below normal. This change in ocean temperature subsequently impacts the circulation patterns of the atmosphere. In the case of La Nina, high pressure persists over the west coast of the United States and results in a dry, northwest flow across the Central Plains. Typically, Oklahoma sees a milder and drier Winter when under the influence of La Nina.

We also noticed that we are exactly four months away from Christmas Day. That’s only approximately 214 shopping days left. I decided that it would be worth my effort to try to delve into all of the research we have on La Nina, the previous years Oklahoma was in a La Nina, and advance computer modeling to come up with a Christmas day forecast…four months in advance! You can thank me later.

All signs point to temperatures being above normal and conditions being drier than normal when Oklahoma falls under a La Nina. That’s why I’m calling for a wet and cold Christmas! Why? Because it’s Oklahoma!

That’s my forecast and I’m sticking with it. I also have the ability to delete this post should we get close to Christmas Day and it looks like I would be completely wrong. What’s your forecast? No wrong guesses here. Should a co-worker ask you the point of this post, go with, “I now know just a little more about a La Nina winter.”

Rusty


 

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