How Accurate was The Farmer’s Almanac ?

The newest edition of The Farmer’s Almanac should be hitting the stores soon, but, how accurate was it for Oklahoma this past YEAR? Well, with the exception of a few off months, it actually didn’t do all that bad. Check it out…

Let’s start with January, where The Almanac was predicting that Oklahoma would see a warm month with temperatures about a degree above normal. Other than a quick warm-up during a period of the month, the month finished cooler than normal. Remember the big arctic outbreak that closed schools in Oklahoma County? In fairness though, the Almanac did say that it would be cold at the beginning of the month. February could be looked at as a bust, since the Almanac was 1.7 degrees off, but in reality, predicting that the temperatures will be 4 degrees below normal in the first place is actually a pretty big deal. So, I would put this month in the category of, ” you missed, but you made a gutsy prediction of being extremely cold, and almost nailed it”. March, again, cold, but not as cold as The Almanac was predicting. April, the first month of the year to finally see a warmer than normal temperature month. And while I do not know the secrets to why The Farmer’s Almanac predicted this, it could have been possibly been expected as El Nino was already weakening, leading to a neutral phase of the ENSO cycle. May, fairly accurate with the prediction and the actual being only 2 tenths of a degree off. June, The Almanac predicted warm, but it turned out to be much much warmer than predicted. Being off by 3 degrees, a fairly big deal. I would say BUST. The Almanac and Reality linked back up for July, as The Almanac was only a half degree off. August, TOTAL BUST! The Almanac predicted a normal temperature month and not much heat. We baked, remember? 100 degree plus temperatures left us almost 4 degrees above normal. September was a bust too, The Almanac predicted cool, we ended up warm, way warm. And, finally October, which could be looked at as a fairly accurate forecast, being off by only 2 tenths of a degree. So, if I had to rate The Almanac this past year. I would say that it would get a fairly decent passing grade. 4 out of 10 months were off, giving it a 60%. Not bad for a model that predicts a year out in advance.

-Damon

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