Frozen Turkeys!

Forecasting this week has just about been as difficult as cooking your first Thanksgiving dinner. The problem? The cold front, which should move in mid-week is not being handled very well by the models. We know that it will arrive, the question is, when? Yesterday, the models were bringing the front in early Wednesday morning. Then, it was noon, then the afternoon, and now… maybe Thursday? Here are 2 of the models that have different arrival times.

The graphic above shows where the models, as of right now,are thinking the front will be at midnight on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The GFS model has the front approaching Oklahoma City, while the NAM model still has the front well into Kansas. It’s normal for there to be some discrepency in models and the timing of fronts, but this is no ordinary November front. And, to make matters even worse, factor in human forecasting here, and take out the computers. I (and just about every other meteorologist in Oklahoma) have been burned by a cold front a time or two, with fronts arriving much earlier than the models ever indicated. Yes, part of me is also thinking that both models may be dead wrong. So, where do we go from here? Sadly, it’s still a toss up and likely will be until Wednesday.

-Damon

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