Archive for December, 2010

New Years Eve–The Details
December 29, 2010

Well Thursday looks warm but the bottom drops out on Friday.  By Friday night, you may not even want to be outside.

Friday morning will start off unsettled with a light rain/snow mix possible in NW Oklahoma.  There will be some rain in the metro but it will push east by mid morning.  Much colder and dry into Friday afternoon.

Friday evening is the big question.  How cold is COLD?  Well I would best describe this as Bone Chilling!!



Wind Chills will be in single digits in some areas.




Ready for the Warmth?
December 29, 2010

Tired of the cold? Get ready for a nice, one day warm-up! Thursday looks to be approaching record high territory. The record high of 74 dates all the way back to 1954. And while the models are calling for highs in the upper 60s, these type of weather patterns are notorious for throwing the models off by a few degrees and tend to warm up more than the models thought. After getting burned by days like these, you quickly learn that it’s best to take what the models think, and then tack on some degrees. In this case, 70 is what I’m calling for now, but this could change. Case in point, the last day of fall, we had a set-up kinda like this. Models went for the upper 60s, we blew it out of the water and hit 77 degrees.


Update: New Years Eve Snow?
December 29, 2010

Our chances of seeing a white New Years is beginning to get lower and lower…and… lower. Sadly, our storm system will track northeast, dry-slotting the main body of the state and keeping us mostly dry, except ahead of the system where a few rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may develop. If there is any snow, head out towards “No-Mans Land” i.e…. The Oklahoma Panhandle. But, even out there, the snow won’t be much. Less than an inch…. well, there’s always New Years 2012.


Very Nice Rainfall Overnight
December 29, 2010

Southeast Oklahoma was the big winner with overnight rainfall as amounts of one to two inches were common.  According to the Oklahoma Mesonet, the highest amount fell in Mt. Herman where 2.25 inches occurred.  Here’s a look at all of the state totals as of 9 am:

You can see outside of southeast Oklahoma, the rainfall was pretty sparse.  Only a few hundredths fell in the OKC metro area.

This morning’s gloomy sky will give way to a mix of clouds and sunshine later today with highs in the upper 50s.  Tomorrow will be quite mild with highs near 70 with a gusty south wind.  Don’t get used to the mild weather as a strong cold front will move through Friday with highs only in the 40s with bitter north winds.  New Year’s Day will be sunny but quite cold with highs only in the 30s.


Look Who’s Under A Winter Storm Warning
December 28, 2010

Don’t worry, it’s nobody in Oklahoma.  But most of the western United States is under some sort of winter advisory, mostly a winter storm warning that is located from Montana, south to Arizona, and west to California.  There are even blizzard warnings in parts of southwest New Mexico:

The pink colors represent the winter storm warnings, the blue is winter storm watches, and the orange is the blizzard warnings.  These watches and warnings are in effect for a powerful storm that is pounding northern California and parts of the Pacific Northwest with rain and snow.  Some lower elevations in northern California will have over two inches of rain by tomorrow evening, while up to 18 inches of snow will fall in the Sierra Nevada mountains.

This storm will move into the Plains states late Thursday into Friday.  For Oklahoma, that means windy and mild weather out ahead of the storm tomorrow and especially Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s.  A cold front will then move through the state on Friday with temperatures falling into the 30s and 40s and gusty north winds.  There will be a chance of rain with the front in Oklahoma, but any snow is most likely going to stay to our north in Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas.

In case you missed it, find me on Twitter.  I’ll keep you updated on weather happenings.  It’ll be a hoot!


It’s Getting Awfully Dry Out There
December 28, 2010

Gary McManus, a climatologist with the Oklahoma Climate Survey, puts out a wonderfully informative blog called the Mesonet Ticker.  In today’s edition he talks about the developing drought across Oklahoma, and how the last 30 days have been the ninth driest in the state since 1921.

The bad part about this lack of moisture is that we are headed into the two driest months of the year in January and February.  Thankfully our water consumption is also at its lowest during the winter.  But heading into spring, one would want adequate soil moisture to be in place.  With a very dry autumn behind us, and a dry start to winter, the concern is that we will move into spring with less than adequate soil moisture.

Here is the 30 day outlook and the 90 day outlook for temperature and precipitation for the United States:

The top left map is for temperature in January, while the top right map is for precipitation in January.  For Oklahoma, temperatures are forecast to be normal to above normal, with below normal precipitation.  The bottom two maps are for the 90 day period of January through March.  Above normal temperatures are expected, with normal to below normal precipitation.  In other words, a continuation of the pattern that developed in mid-summer.

In the short-term, we do have a chance of some rain tonight, and then again Friday.  Unfortunately amounts will be light, except for southeast Oklahoma where over an inch is possible tonight into tomorrow:

By the way, I’m off this week just hanging around the house not doing much.  I did manage to set up a Twitter account.  I don’t know much about tweeting, but I do feel it is a valuable way to disseminate information.  So if you would like to receive my tweets, I guess you need to follow me.  My Twitter name is kocoweather.  Right now I have six people following me.  I’d like to boost that to at least 10 :).  Spread the word oh faithful weather warriors.


Post Christmas Cold!
December 27, 2010

December 26th, Boxing Day in Canada will be looked at in Oklahoma as an uber cold morning. How cold was it? The coldest morning since almost mid January when we hit 6 degrees for a low. Since then, we hadn’t gone below 17 degrees, but yesterday morning, we hit 14… yeah, that’s cold!


Update: New Years Snow?
December 27, 2010

We continue to watch the models closely as our next big weather maker is expected to roll in here by the end of the week. So, what do we know now that we didn’t know this past weekend? Not much has changed really. Ahead of the storm:

Will likely be warm and any moisture that falls from the sky will hall as all rain for Thursday. Headed into Friday is when we could see some snow in Western Oklahoma with the storm jetting off towards the northeast. On the back-end of the storm is when most of OKlahoma will have it’s best chance of seeing snow. And even then, it may not be much. By Saturday morning, this is what I am expecting:

Snow possible with the best chance in Northern Oklahoma. I don’t see this, as of right now, creating many issues in Oklahoma City. But, models change and we’ll keep watching it.


Christmas Day Hello!
December 25, 2010

Merry Christmas from the First Alert Storm Team!  I hope your wishes came true today and Santa brought you all the goodies you were hoping for.  It’s kind of cold and dreary across much of Oklahoma as low clouds have been stubborn.  Here’s an early afternoon visible satellite picture:

As you know, the white represents cloudy cover, while the dark areas is where it is sunny, such as parts of western Oklahoma.  Despite the clouds right now, I do expect a general decrease in the clouds later today into tonight. 

Tomorrow will end up being a sunny but cold day with highs in the 30s and 40s.  The winds will be light so that should make it not feel as cold as today.

We’ll start the new last week of 2010 off with dry weather Monday and Tuesday.  There will also be a gradual moderation in temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s.

By Wednesday, Gulf moisture will work it’s way north into Oklahoma with increaed clouds central and east, and even a low chance of showers in those areas.  Temperatures should climb into the 50s across most of the state.

As Damon mentioned in his previous post, a storm system will beging to develop to our west by Thursday.  That will warm us up quite a bit with highs in the 60s and perhaps a few 70s.  Southerly winds will bring an increased fire danger to the state.  The storm system will then move into the plains on Friday with a chance of rain. 

The models are not in agreement on the details for this storm.  The European model bring a strong cold front through on Friday with just a bit of rain followed by falling temps.  The GFS is slower and wetter.  It also tries to bring in the cold air in time to create some wintry precip in the state on Friday.

About the only thing the models agree on is that there will be some sort of storm system in the southern Plains by the New Year’s Eve.  We’ll watch it closely for you.

By the way, if you’re a real weather geek like me, keep an eye on the northeast United States tomorrow night.  The models are showing a “bomb” developing just off the coast.

Places like New York City and Boston could get a blizzard.  Should be fun to watch from a distance.

Again, Merry Christmas and our best wishes for you and your family!


New Years Eve Storm?
December 24, 2010

Last year it was a White Christmas. Could this year bring a White New Years Day? It’s a possibility but first thing I want to mention is that this is still a week out and the models could change. The GFS model is showing a strong winter storm moving into The Central Plains bringing with it rain at first as warm air moves in ahead of the system and then cold air and lots of snow behind it. The last model run that came out did show Oklahoma getting mostly dry-slotted as the storm tracked north meaning that we wouldn’t see much snow. But, still, this far out, anything can happen. We’ll have it on our radar and watch it closely..