What I Know, And What I Think I Know

What I know is that big weather changes are coming.  Gone are the 70s of yesterday and Friday.  Arriving Monday will be highs in the 30s, followed by temperatures mostly in the teens and 20s on Tuesday. 

I also know that north winds on Tuesday will gust to near 40 mph with wind chill values below zero. 

And yes, I know that there’s going to be precipitation.  It will most likely start Monday evening as a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then change quickly over to snow.  I’m confident that the bulk of the sleet and snow will fall after midnight Monday night, and last through about noon on Tuesday, with blowing and drifting snow continuing through Tuesday night.

I’m feel strongly that travel will be quite messy and there’s no way I would have any family member of mine out on the roads from late Monday through Tuesday.

Now for the things I think I know.  Let’s start with snow amounts.  I believe the OKC metro area will end up with around 4 inches of sleet and snow.  The computer models are in great disagreement on how much snow will fall in central Oklahoma.  Take a look at this:

This is a snowfall forecast by the GFS ( a computer model) up through 6 pm Tuesday.  Look at Oklahoma and you can see green colors through the state.  The green represents snowfall of 1 to 5 inches.  There is yellow and orange in the northeast part of the state.  That would be snow in excess of 6 inches there.  So based on this model, OKC would have about 2-4 inches.  Combine that with near 40 mph gusts and below zero wind chills, you still have a nasty storm.

Now look at the NAM model valid for the same time:

Can you see the difference?  Look at the huge area of yellow and red colors representing over a foot of snow for much of the state!   If this model verifies it would be worse than the 2009 Christmas Eve blizzard.

My feeling is that we will end up in between these models, but probably closer to the GFS totals of around 4 inches.  The NAM just seems overdone with its amount of moisture.  I still believe this will be a powerful storm in terms of its effect on Oklahoma, so be prepared.

By the way, we now have a weather page on Facebook called Oklahoma Weather Updates.  Also look for kocoweather on Twitter.  We’re doing all that we can to bring you the information you need to keep you safe and informed.  And don’t forget to watch Eyewitness News 5 tonight at 5:30 and 10:00 pm as I will have the very latest on what to expect.

Rick

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7 Responses

  1. I am loving the new Facebook page and Koco on Twitter. Thanks for meeting us where we are!

  2. I don’t know Rick? The 18 NAM is out and it’s been pretty consistent

  3. I’m favoring the NAM over GFS. Just look at what a joke the GFS is with the snow totals.

  4. One of two things is going to happen. With the GFS and NAM finally agreeing to give us a huge nasty storm as now both are predicting over 10″. So either that is going to happen or as was so commonly talked about on the live blog last year the dry slot is going to take the snow away from us. The other possibility is for warm air to wrap up in it which could also be bad as far as ice goes. I’m just interested to see how this turns out

  5. It has been consistent for sure Dustin, but the totals it is putting out still seem a little outrageous….winter storms around here, even the really bad ones like this one may very well end up being, still rarely ever reach snow totals like the ones the NAM is putting out….not saying it absolutely can’t happen, but upwards of 18″ of snow in the OKC Metro, even if it is consistent in the model, still seems like too much.

    That being said, the 18Z GFS has now bumped up its snow totals significantly from its “lower” totals from the 12Z run shown here….so we’ll just have to wait and see! It looks like this storm is gonna be a doozy one way or another.

  6. Love all the weather info. on this blog! It’s fun to follow along.

  7. Just because it has never happened here before doesnt mean it cant.

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