Update: Thursday Severe Weather

We continue to closely watch what is likely going to be the first severe weather outbreak of 2011 for this Thursday across The United States. The map above illustrates where the best chance for severe weather will be. This is not a “risk” map, but rather a “chance” map. As you can see, the threat for storms increases quite a bit as you head east towards Eastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas and Tennessee. There is a chance that we could see some storms develop late Wednesday Night and early Thursday in Western Oklahoma but the risk for severe storms would be low. Storms are likely to form late Wednesday Night/Thursday morning and could be east of Oklahoma City during the early afternoon hours. Because of this early development, we may not have enough instability to see a high end threat for severe storms. So, for now, we’ll continue to emphasize the threat for hail and winds and some much needed heavy rain. Right now, the models are thinking that hail size here would likely be in the range of .75″­- 1.25″ and rainfall approaching .50″-1.0″ in some areas.

-Damon

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