Tuesday Severe Weather Risk

Our next storm system is already moving in this direction and it looks like the risk for severe storms will once again return. During the month of March, we start to see temperatures warm up moreso than we did in February, and at the same time, more moisture moving out of The Gulf of Mexico into the state. So, our threat for tornadoes increases, especially into Southeastern Oklahoma. We average about 5 tornadoes across the state for the month.

Right now, we’re dividing the state in half with east of I-35 having a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms. I put in the potential for tornadoes, though the threat will exist for a small period of time, mainly during the storms early stages. The tornado risk will diminish quickly as the storms move into Northeastern Oklahoma, but not for Southeastern Oklahoma where the tornado threat will exist until later into the evening. As of now, the tornado risk will line up decently with where climatology thinks tornadoes are most frequent during the month of March.

If there is any hail in these storms, right now the NAM model expects that hail sizes would be marginal. There could be a few showers early in the day with isolated rumbles of thunder, but I expect if a storm does go severe, it’ll need peak heating of the afternoon, so I don’t see storms developing, if they even do, until atleast 3 or 4pm.

-Damon

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One Response

  1. Hopefully there will be no tornadoes,just rain and thunder storms.

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