Could June Be Hotter Than July?

It’s been a popular topic that we’ve been asked. Will this heat we’re seeing in July be worse than what we had in June. You may want to quickly answer that with a “yes”, but not so fast my friend.

Let’s compare the heat we had in June. Our average high in June usually varies from the mid 80s to around 90. For the most part, our highs were pinging in the mid 90s to lower 100s. These temperatures, compared to our average highs were running about 15 degrees above normal. So, if you take the morning low and the afternoon high, our average temperature for the month was 84.1 degrees, which made June 2011 the 2nd warmest June on record.

Now, let’s look at the month of July and what is usually considered “normal”. Throughout the month, our average highs range in the low to mid 90s. SO, if we have high temperatures in the 100 degree range like we had in June, then the departure from normal is only 5 degrees or so. 100 degree highs when your average is 85 is far different than 100 degree highs with a 95 degree average.

The point I’m trying to make here is that the heat we had in June may indeed be more impressive than what we could see this month simply do to the fact that the departure from normal won’t be nearly as extreme. As is, if you took our average temperature from the month of June this year, and compared it to July, then the 84.1 degree temperature wouldn’t even crack the top 10.

What exactly would it take to make this July hotter than June in the sense of departure from normal? We would need to see high temperatures in the range of 106°-111° on a regular basis, and morning low temperatures around 74°. I guess given the drought anything is possible…



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