A Day 3 Moderate Risk!

It’s not often you see a Day 3 Moderate Risk out.  The last time we had a Day 3 Moderate Risk was during the Alabama tornadoes last year.  The Storm Prediction Center issued one earlier today for Saturday. But, this isn’t your typical severe weather day in Oklahoma. First off, the amount of instability will be high enough that peak heating of the day will be strong enough to spark off a few storms. But, the main event may not occur until much later in the evening. We won’t need the heating to get things going.  The following model is our in-house model known is RPM/Predictor.

Notice how it doesn’t even begin to form a line of storms until around midnight Saturday/Sunday. This is what makes the system unusual for Oklahoma. Most of us are used to storms developing by 4pm and then done by the evening. This however is unique and perhaps even more dangerous. Sleeping during severe weather? Make sure you have some sort of weather alert should something move in on you. These could be long track tornadoes moving quickly.

By Sunday morning, the line may still be out west approaching the Oklahoma City Metro around sunrise. Yes, this is just one model and it could change. But it gives us an idea that the timing of the system will make this unlike any other system we’ve had impact Oklahoma in the recent years.

Do I expect this model data to change? Perhaps it will. But, as a meteorologist, when looking at all the data coming in, it’s easy to see why this could be one impressive storm system. Stay tuned…

-Damon

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5 Responses

  1. Ugh! Thanks for posting that. Very helpful! I didn’t realize it could potentially start so late. So for the metro it may actually be a Sunday morning event then?

  2. I will be ready.

  3. Just out of curiosity. How come news station meteorologists and produces does not say to pray about these things on public airway? I think that should be allowed telling people to pray these storms away if they do not want destruction in their town. If it offends people, then they can change channels, but that is just me.

  4. Thank you for the update! It looks like the weekend might be a bit exciting and perhaps unnerving. I hope everyone has their weather radios up and running.

  5. I will do my very best to maintain outside to capture videos and pictures. It’s going to be hard since a guy totaled my truck on I-240 two weeks ago.

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