The Old Farmer’s Almanac: Accurate??

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been around since 1792 and continues to be the source for weather for farmers and some meteorology gurus.  Sure, I’ve read it from time to time and today, I decided to see how accurate it really is in predicting long-term weather.

The almanac predicted a milder winter for 2011.  Turns out, with La Niña around, temperatures across the state were warmer than average.  In OKC specifically, the months of December through February proved old man winter was lacking his punch.  In Dec., we were 0.5 degrees above average; Jan., 4.5 degrees; and Feb., one degree above average.

Winter rainfall was forecast to be below normal for the state.  I averaged the numbers for OKC and turns out, we were one-tenth inches above average.  Of course, this is looking at just one city.  It would take awhile to crunch numbers for the entire state.

Their forecast called for April to be warm too.  This is holding true because so far, our average monthly temperature is 63.5 degrees, 4.1 degrees above average.

What about May?  May is also to see the heat, while their forecast calls for cooler weather over the summer.  Sigh.  This would be great ( in my opinion)!  This actually might be accurate because we know La Niña is fading.  If an El Niño pattern develops soon, we could very well be looking at cooler temperatures this summer.  However, keep in mind the effects of this pattern are more pronounced in the winter.  Guess we’ll see!

The Old Farmer’s Almanac makes its long-range forecasts based on solar patterns and historical conditions.  Although generalized, their forecasts have been pretty accurate in my last few years of reading!

By: Danielle Dozier/Twitter: @DanielleDozier

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