1st Hurricane Forecast is Out

The 1st Hurricane Forecast of the year is out and already, the numbers aren’t looking all that bad. Word of caution though. DO NOT THINK THAT A LESSER HURRICANE FORECAST MEANS THERE WILL BE WEAKER HURRICANES.

Dr Gray and his team from Colorado State University are forecasting a below average Hurricane season for 2012. You can read the stats above. Compared to what is normal, this year looks to be below average. But, looking past the numbers shows that even though fewer storms are expected this year, the chance that the U.S. Coast could be impacted by a Hurricane are still up there, around 42%.

The reason for the lesser than average season? A weakening La Nina and a forecast that El Nino may begin during the peak of Hurricane season are the reason for the outlook. Ofcourse, this is just a prediction based on history. It’s absolutely impossible to make a forecast with 100% accuracy on what may happen in the summer when we’re just barely into spring. Stay tuned, this forecast will be tweaked over the months ahead.



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